ABSTRACT
Hydro-climatic variability poses significant risks to water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods in West Africa, where river basins remain highly vulnerable to climate change and data scarcity. This study investigates long-term rainfall and discharge trends in Nigeria’s Benue River Basin (1990–2023) and develops a hybrid deep learning framework for improved hydro-climatic forecasting. Rainfall and discharge datasets were bias-corrected using Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) and analyzed with the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to detect trends. Results revealed a significant increase in rainfall in the Upper (Yola) and Lower (Lokoja) basins, alongside a significant decline in discharge in the Middle Basin (Makurdi), reflecting strong spatial heterogeneity, influenced by climate and land-use changes. A hybrid Artificial Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory–QDM (ANN–LSTM–QDM) model was implemented, integrating nonlinear, temporal, and uncertainty quantification capabilities. Performance evaluation shows that the hybrid model outperforms standalone ANN and LSTM models, reducing RMSE by 18% and achieving R² values of 0.89 (rainfall) and 0.86 (discharge). Projections under CMIP6 scenarios suggest intensification of wet-season rainfall and river discharge, thereby increasing the risks of floods and droughts. The findings highlight the potential of hybrid deep learning frameworks to improve hydro-climatic risk forecasting and support adaptive water management, early warning systems, and climate-resilient development in data-scarce river basins.
AUTHOR AFFILIATIONS
1 Department of Physics and Environmental Sciences, School of Basic Sciences and Research, Sharda University, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India
2 Department of Physics and Environmental Science, School of Earth Sciences, Central University of Rajasthan (CURAJ), NH8, Bandar Sindri, Ajmer, Rajasthan 305817, India
3 Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, Prithvi Bhawan, opposite India Habitat, Centre Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110001, India
CITATION
Godwin JA, Singh S, Dibal IJ, Kumar R and Singh J (2025) Hybrid Deep Learning and Trend Analysis for Rainfall and Discharge Forecasting under Hydro-Climatic Risks in Nigeria’s Benue Basin. Environmental Science Archives 4(2): 927-937.
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