ABSTRACT
Rainfall variability under arid and semi-arid climatic conditions has profound socio-economic implications for agricultural livelihoods. Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall is therefore essential for sustainable agricultural planning. The present study examines long-term rainfall variability and trends over a 122-year period (1901–2022) across 20 districts of Punjab, India, with the objective of identifying significant temporal patterns and providing insights for future agricultural sustainability. Descriptive statistical analyses combined with trend detection techniques, including the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator, were employed to assess rainfall trends at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The results indicate that Pathankot, Hoshiarpur, and Shaheed Bhagat Singh Nagar received the highest average annual rainfall, while Fazilka, Sri Muktsar Sahib, and Bathinda recorded the lowest. The long-period average (LPA) rainfall for Punjab was estimated at 630.2 ± 154.9 mm. Among agro-climatic zones, the sub-mountain undulating plain zone (SMZ) exhibited the highest LPA rainfall (1039.4 mm), followed by the central plain zone (CPZ; 689.4 mm), undulating plain zone (UPZ; 663.5 mm), and western zone (WZ; 435.2 mm), whereas the western plain zone (WPZ) recorded the lowest LPA rainfall (385.6 mm). Decadal analysis revealed the highest rainfall intensity during 1951–1960 (722.7 ± 148.6 mm) and the lowest during 1921–1930 (542.7 ± 101.6 mm). Although an increasing rainfall trend was observed during the initial decade (1901–1910) and a declining trend during the most recent decade (2011–2022), the overall long-term rainfall trend was not statistically significant. The findings provide valuable insights for rainfall management, agricultural planning, and policy formulation aimed at enhancing resilience and ensuring food security, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.
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